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  • From Construction to Large Language Models February 22, 2024

    Construction, mainly residential, was the main driver of the recovery from the pandemic. The new driver is large language models and the promise of a transition to artificial general intelligence and accelerated growth. How much of this is a narrative during ...

  • Identifying Highly Overbought Stocks With Norgate Data Delisted Series February 20, 2024

    Calculating statistics for highly overbought stocks requires a historical series with delistings for major indexes. Here are some examples using Norgate Data. On Thursday, February 15, 2024, the 14-day RSI of Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) reached 96.79 due to a ...

  • Market Signals For February 19, 2024 February 17, 2024

    Market recap, open positions, new signals, and performance of six trading strategies. Tactical asset allocation, mean-reversion, cross-sectional momentum, and equity long-short. Access the full report with a Market Signals or All-in-One subscription.

  • Left-Tail Drop in 2-Year Note Futures February 14, 2024

    An unexpected rise in inflation caused a left-tail drop in 2-Year Note futures on Tuesday, February 13, 2024. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: The index for all items less food and energy rose 3.9 percent over the past 12 ...

  • The Market is Like a Large Movie Theater With a Small Door February 8, 2024

    When corrections start in the markets, everyone rushes to the exit door. Those who are late panic as they see their portfolio’s value plummeting. “The market is like a large movie theater with a small door.” The above is a quote from ...

  • A Casino Where All Gamblers Win January 29, 2024

    Some make more, some less, but in this casino, all gamblers win. All it takes is tossing a fair coin. This casino is the S&P 500 index total return. Consider the SPY ETF, which has closely tracked the S&P 500 total ...

  • Day Trading is Hard if the Goal is to Make Money January 25, 2024

    If it is just a recreational activity, day trading can be fun, but making money with it is hard due to the statistical properties of market returns. Longer timeframes offer higher odds of success but lower profit potential. As the trading ...

  • Dynamic Momentum Signals January 23, 2024

    We are excited to announce the launch of our new service, Dynamic Momentum Signals. The Dynamic Momentum Strategy (DYNMOM) is a proprietary timing algorithm that trades the SPY ETF. Its objective is to maximize the Sharpe ratio and avoid market corrections. ...

  • An ETF That Has Outperformed Its Index January 20, 2024

    Since 2022, the Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish ETF (UUP) has been up 16%, while the underlying index has been up only 8%. T-Bills are the reason for this wide outperformance. I will start by noting that since 2022, gold ...

  • Fund Performance, Investor Returns, and Irrational Market Participants January 17, 2024

    There are divergences between the historical performance of hedge funds and commodity trading advisors and customer performance, especially in the case of retail investing. Irrational market participants cause extreme volatility. Realizing the benefits of the long-term performance of a hedge fund ...