- Cocoa In The Tails March 16, 2024
Cocoa surged 25.4% this week, and it is up 106% year-to-date. Since 2023, cocoa is up 261%. Price action in cocoa has been in the tails of distribution for the better part of this year due to harvest problems and ...
- Contribution of Commodities To Trend Following Performance March 13, 2024
We look at the contribution of commodities to the performance of a simple trend-following strategy based on price breakouts. In the last five years, commodities have significantly contributed to trend-following performance. Trend-following makes more sense with commodities. Trend-following is a simple ...
- What is a Market Bubble? March 5, 2024
It is hard to define market bubbles. All attempts to identify bubbles are highly subjective. What is a market bubble? The common definition is that a bubble is a rapid rise in asset prices. But that is part of the story. ...
- Macroeconomic Analysis or Simple Technical Indicators? March 2, 2024
Does it make any sense for individual investors and traders to use macroeconomic analysis instead of simple technical indicators? The last two years have raised doubts about the effectiveness of macroeconomic analysis, while simple technical indicators have performed reasonably well. Macroeconomic ...
- 9 Trading Strategies For All Seasons March 1, 2024
We offer nine end-of-day trading strategies for all seasons: mean-reversion, trend-following, seasonality, volatility, and outliers. The list of strategies can be found here. This offer includes the MRMOM mean-reversion/momentum regime switching strategy. Below are backtests of the nine strategies. The last ...
- Permabears Vs. Permabulls February 27, 2024
Being a permabear is as irrational as being a permabull. Both are bias-driven emotional states of mind. The financial mainstream media created the bull versus bear narrative to “divide and conquer” the investment landscape. I summarized the main point of my ...
- From Construction to Large Language Models February 22, 2024
Construction, mainly residential, was the main driver of the recovery from the pandemic. The new driver is large language models and the promise of a transition to artificial general intelligence and accelerated growth. How much of this is a narrative during ...
- Identifying Highly Overbought Stocks With Norgate Data Delisted Series February 20, 2024
Calculating statistics for highly overbought stocks requires a historical series with delistings for major indexes. Here are some examples using Norgate Data. On Thursday, February 15, 2024, the 14-day RSI of Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) reached 96.79 due to a ...
- Market Signals For February 19, 2024 February 17, 2024
Market recap, open positions, new signals, and performance of six trading strategies. Tactical asset allocation, mean-reversion, cross-sectional momentum, and equity long-short. Access the full report with a Market Signals or All-in-One subscription.
- Left-Tail Drop in 2-Year Note Futures February 14, 2024
An unexpected rise in inflation caused a left-tail drop in 2-Year Note futures on Tuesday, February 13, 2024. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: The index for all items less food and energy rose 3.9 percent over the past 12 ...