- Market Timing Does Not Predict Returns November 9, 2023
There is a recurring theme in the financial mainstream media about market timing being ineffective because a small number of large returns drive stock market performance. The conclusion is disconnected from the facts. Summary Market timing is often argued to be ineffective ...
- How Trading Has Changed Over The Years November 8, 2023
A summary of my latest YouTube video on how trading has changed over the years Trading is a complex subject, and analyzing how it has changed over the years requires a paper or even a book for an in-depth analysis. In ...
- ETF Seasonality Strategy with Low Exposure and Positive Skew November 6, 2023
The ETF seasonality strategy trades long-only SPY, TLT, and GLD ETFs.
- CTAs the Target of Short Squeeze in Equity and Bond Markets November 4, 2023
Commodity Trading Advisors, who were short the equity and bond markets, were the main targets of a major short squeeze this week. Systematic traders who were out of the market missed potential gains. Summary Rare weekly moves in the stock and bond ...
- Some Economists Are Claiming Victory For Tossing Coins October 28, 2023
Some economists are claiming victory for their predictions of no recession this year. Tossing a fair coin is hardly a prediction and does not justify a victory lap. Some economists predicted a recession this year, while others insisted there would not ...
- The S&P 500 Broke A Historic Win Streak of 15 Up Mondays October 24, 2023
A historic, yet unexplainable, win streak of 15 consecutive Mondays was broken on October 23, 2023. Here are the details. The S&P 500 index fell 0.17% on Monday, October 23, 2023, after a historic winning streak of 15 consecutive Mondays. The gain ...
- Large Cap Stocks Have Provided An Inflation Hedge October 17, 2023
The US dollar and large-cap stocks have provided a better hedge as compared to gold during this inflation cycle. Emerging market stocks and bonds have been a disaster, as expected. Since March 2021, when the MoM CPI broke above 2%, the ...
- Doomsday Predictions Should Not Drive Investment Decisions October 15, 2023
This week, a famous fund manager declared a 50% probability of a world war. The market gained despite the doomsday prediction and reports of rising inflation. Why is the market rising when there are two brutal wars and the possibility of ...
- The Huge Optimization Space of Trend-Following October 12, 2023
Despite its purported simplicity, trend-following has a huge optimization space due to a large number of parameters. This is the primary reason for the large dispersion in performance across trend-following commodity trading advisors (CTAs). In an article on October 9, 2023, ...
- Using the Norgate Data Unadjusted Close Function October 11, 2023
The Norgate Data function to access the unadjusted price is useful when backtesting strategies for stocks. We include in this article results from a trend-following strategy that trades Russell 2000 stocks. For all backtests in this article, we used Norgate Data ...
