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  • Mean-Reversion and Momentum Regime Switching January 12, 2024

    This article describes an ETF trading strategy with mean-reversion and momentum regime switching. The Sharpe ratio of the strategy is greater than 1.

  • PSI5 Mean-Reversion Performance Update For 2023 January 11, 2024

    This article provides an update on the performance of the PSI5 strategy applied in convergent (mean-reversion) mode to SPY, QQQ ETFs, and Dow 30 stocks. Long-term performance results are also included, from the inception of the ETFs and since 1993 ...

  • The Many Variants of the 60/40 Portfolio January 5, 2024

    The 60/40 portfolio has many variants depending on the choice of stock and bond allocations. In this article, we look at 10 variants of this popular strategic allocation. This article includes an analysis of 10 variants of the 60/40 portfolio. We ...

  • Most Retail Traders Are After Lottery Tickets January 3, 2024

    Most retail traders are after lottery tickets instead of following strategies and having a disciplined approach to markets. This is the disadvantage of retail and provides an edge to institutional systematic trading. Despite many good books on the subject of trading ...

  • Challenging Two Years For Stocks, the Narratives, and the Rise of AI December 29, 2023

    Despite the hype in the financial mainstream and social media, the US stock market had its worst two-year period in 78 years when considering years with gains and the two-year performance.  Artificial intelligence is causing a regime change. Although stocks, especially ...

  • Useful Stock Market Predictions December 26, 2023

    Stock market predictions for gains in the coming year are not very useful because the odds of the stock market gaining in a given year are already high. Summary: Most stock market analysts forecast gains for the next year, especially after ...

  • Bragging About Returns in Good Years December 22, 2023

    Traders and investors with many years of market experience rarely brag about one highly profitable trade or one profitable year. They know markets are an uphill battle. There will be good trades, exceptional trades, and bad trades. There will also ...

  • Overnight Effect Regime Change December 21, 2023

    Do you remember the overnight effect? Most of us have forgotten all about it. There was a regime change in 2022. Most traders are looking for new anomalies. The overnight effect in SPY ETF was strong in the 1990s. After a ...

  • Hybrid Asset Allocation Signals December 20, 2023

    We are pleased to announce the hybrid asset allocation signal service. Hybrid asset allocation (HAA) employs two strategies: asset cross-sectional momentum and strategic allocation. Both strategies use ETFs to generate signals. The asset cross-sectional momentum strategy (CSMOM) and the strategic allocation strategy ...

  • Permabears with Hundreds of Thousands of Followers December 16, 2023

    There is this puzzling phenomenon on financial social media: some permabear accounts have hundreds of thousands of followers. Below are a few thoughts that might provide some clues. Since I joined Twitter (now X) in 2010, I have been a witness ...