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We look at the contribution of commodities to the performance of a simple trend-following strategy based on price breakouts. In the last five years, commodities have significantly contributed to trend-following performance. Trend-following makes more sense with commodities. Trend-following is a simple ...

It is hard to define market bubbles. All attempts to identify bubbles are highly subjective. What is a market bubble? The common definition is that a bubble is a rapid rise in asset prices. But that is part of the story. ...

Does it make any sense for individual investors and traders to use macroeconomic analysis instead of simple technical indicators? The last two years have raised doubts about the effectiveness of macroeconomic analysis, while simple technical indicators have performed reasonably well. Macroeconomic ...

Being a permabear is as irrational as being a permabull. Both are bias-driven emotional states of mind. The financial mainstream media created the bull versus bear narrative to “divide and conquer” the investment landscape. I summarized the main point of my ...

Construction, mainly residential, was the main driver of the recovery from the pandemic. The new driver is large language models and the promise of a transition to artificial general intelligence and accelerated growth. How much of this is a narrative during ...

Calculating statistics for highly overbought stocks requires a historical series with delistings for major indexes. Here are some examples using Norgate Data. On Thursday, February 15, 2024, the 14-day RSI of Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) reached 96.79 due to a ...

An unexpected rise in inflation caused a left-tail drop in 2-Year Note futures on Tuesday, February 13, 2024. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: The index for all items less food and energy rose 3.9 percent over the past 12 ...

When corrections start in the markets, everyone rushes to the exit door. Those who are late panic as they see their portfolio’s value plummeting. “The market is like a large movie theater with a small door.” The above is a quote from ...

Some make more, some less, but in this casino, all gamblers win. All it takes is tossing a fair coin. This casino is the S&P 500 index total return. Consider the SPY ETF, which has closely tracked the S&P 500 total ...

If it is just a recreational activity, day trading can be fun, but making money with it is hard due to the statistical properties of market returns. Longer timeframes offer higher odds of success but lower profit potential. As the trading ...