Premium Trader Education

A Selection of Premium Articles about Trading, including several free articles.

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Summary of contents

Type	Free	Premium
Books	1	2
Software	1	2
Articles	53	190

Books

Free book

Subscribe for free notifications of blog posts and blog updates and upon confirmation receive the link to the free pdf book, Profitability and Systematic Trading (Wiley, 2008). Click here to subscribe.

Premium Books*

Fooled by Technical Analysis: The perils of charting, backtesting, and data-mining
15 Lies About Trading And Investing

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Software

Premium Software: DLPAL S, DLPAL DQ, and DLPAL LS. Click here for demos and more information.

Articles

Why classical technical analysis charting is no longer effective

The Post-Hoc Chartist
The Main Cause of Failure of Classical Technical Analysis
Is the Bulk of Technical Analysis “Thinking in Words”?
“Dow is Overbought” Is More Bullish Than Bearish
Drawing Lines On Charts Is Not A Strategy
Rule No. 1 For Success
Chartists Debunked With Math
Technical Analysis Has Misled Traders
“Market Is Technically Overbought” Narrative
Technical Analysis and Cognitive Bias
Major Failure of Chart Pattern Analysis
Cryptocurrency Technical Analysis
Chart Patterns Without Statistics is Naive Technical Analysis

Trend-following and momentum

All Actions In The Markets Amount To Forecasts
Trend Followers Make Forecasts
The Limiting Case Of Equity Trend-following is Passive Investing
The Golden Cross Trading System Lacks Intelligence
What is so Special About the 200-Day Moving Average?
Momentum Has Returned to Stock Market
Illusions of Long-Term Performance Charts
Academic Illusions About Moving Average Performance
Momentum and Trend-following Strategy Variants
Investing In the Stock Market Based on Golden Cross Signals
Jim Simons is Correct About Trend-Following
Trend-following Woes
Where Do Trend-Following Profits Come From?
A Trend-follower’s Nightmare
Why Trend Following is Hard
Momentum, Randomness, And Survivorship Bias
A Simple Explanation Of The Persistence Of The Momentum Anomaly
The Day Momentum Died
Momentum is Price Breakout
A Trend-follower’s Nightmare
Three Reasons Why Momentum is Neglected
Price Series Momentum and Wishful Thinking
Momentum Versus Trend-following
Trend-Following Vs. Quasi-Buy and Hold
Does Trend Following Work on Stocks? Yes, Maybe, No

Trading, Risk, and Money Management

The Secret to Profitable Trading
When Traders Fail
Why Trading is Hard
Position Sizing Based on Risk Ratio
Risk of Ruin For Dummies
The Primary Cause For Trader Failures
Optimal Position Size Methods and Other Misconceptions
Same Investments But Divergent Fortune
To Gamble Or Not To Gamble?
What You Want From The Market Vs. What It Can Give You
Log, Annualized, and Total Return
Use Algos to Fight The Algos
CAGR Illusions
Financial Media and Trading Gurus Provide an Edge
The Simplest Trading Edge and Peter Principle
Is Your Trading Edge About to Vanish?
What Price Action Cannot Tell You
Shorting the Stock Market is a Losing Proposition
Market Risk: Principles and Practice
Passive Investor High Risk of Large Drawdown
The Amazing Small Edge of the Stock Market
Optimal Trading Using the Kelly Formula
Leverage, Margin, and Trading Account Capitalization
The Most Important Performance Measure
Maximizing Kelly
Rule No. 1 For Success
The Fallacy of Rare Events and Fat Tails
The Real Reasons Some Traders Lose
1072 Chances to Short and Profit
Trendline Zoo
What Is A Quant Trader?
A Common Mistake in Calculating Correlations
Volatility Good For Traders Under Certain Conditions
Is Your Trading Edge About to Vanish?
How Some Academics Misguide Traders And Hedge Funds
Modern Technical Analyst vs. Chartist
Kelly Leverage
SPY ETF Regular Trading Hours is Noise
Kelly Betting May Lead to Ruin
Trading and the Role of Luck
Random Trading Versus Trading Randomly
The Imperative of Tail Risk Hedging
The 2% Position Risk Rule: Facts and Fiction
Random Could Become the New Edge
When Random Traders Profit, It is Hard to Prove Skill
What Some Permabears Fail to Understand
Markets Are Algo-Event Driven
There Are Many Bluffers in the Markets

Market Statistics and Probability

Please, No More Correlations
Market Rebound Rallies
Descriptive Vs. Predictive TA
Market Timing and Gambling
S&P 500 Is Intelligent Trading Strategy
Descriptive Statistics In Finance

Perils of backtesting and machine learning

Fooled by Random Backtesting
Inferences From Backtest Results Are False Until Proven True
Inaccurate Backtest Results Are Common
Fooled by Monthly Returns Statistics
Look-Ahead Bias Detection
Perils of Using Exchange Traded Products in Backtests
Major Misconceptions About Backtesting
Machine Learning in Quant Trading: Misconceptions and Wrong Applications
Curve-fitting and Optimization
Five Myths About Data-Mining Bias
Long-Term Backtests Can Be Misleading
Passive Investing Is An Over-Fitted Strategy
Ruined by Hypothesis Testing
Perils Of Statistical Hypothesis Testing
More on the Perils of Statistical Hypothesis Testing
The Next Big Market Trap
When “Best Strategies” Fail
Performance too Good to Be True
The Fundamental Problem of Backtesting
A Trillion Ways To Be Fooled
Two Empirical Rules About Backtesting
Fooled by Multiple Comparisons
Selection and Data Mining Bias in Trading System Development

Portfolio allocation and market timing

Comparison Of Two Portfolio Allocations
Trading Vs. Investing
Investing in European Stocks is Forex Bet
Forex As An Asset Class
How Risky Is The 60/40 Portfolio?
Long-Only Equity Strategy Benchmark
Portfolio Rebalancing is Market Timing
Perils of Asset Allocation Models
Tactical Investing Conundrum
International vs. U.S. Stocks
Passive Investing Is An Over-Fitted Strategy
No Free Lunch In Portfolio Allocation
Hedge Funds Have Done Well
Wrong Investment Advice is Much Worse than Random Trading Tips
Timing versus Allocation
The Transition From Strategic To Tactical Asset Allocation
Investing in Stock Market is Now Fool’s Errand
Walk Forward Optimization of the Stocks/Bonds Portfolio

Hedge Funds

Two Facts About Hedge Funds
A Survival Guide For The Coming Hedge Fund War
Hedge Fund Edge Dynamics
Is Your Hedge Fund Using Your Money To Test Trading Strategies?
Quant Funds Must Have Realistic Targets

Indicators, strategies, and price action anomalies

Momersion Indicator
Has the Internal Bar Strength Indicator Lost its Strength?
VIX Day of Week Returns
Trend-Following with Mean-reversion Companion
An Interesting Price Action Anomaly
Two Billion Dollar Trend-Following Strategy
Buying Tech Stocks After Large Gains
Generating Alpha With Leverage
RSI is a Short-Term Momentum Indicator
Harris’ RSI
Gambler’s Fallacy
SNR
Amibroker Code For 3 Indicators
Bond anomaly
Seasonality anomaly
Simple Investment Strategy
Turnaround Tuesday
“Death Cross” Means “Loser”
The Perils Of Volatility Strategies
RSI Indicator Level Importance Decay
Performance Of Two Price Action Anomalies
Mean-Reversion and Momentum Regime Switching
How Hindsight Bias Can Create Order From Chaos

Trading Math

Win Rate, Profit Facto,r and Payoff Ratio
The Trading System Inversion Paradox
The Many Faces of Trading Expectation
Arithmetic Versus Geometric Mean Conundrum
What is a trading “edge”?
What is a trading “edge”? – Part II
Every Trader Should Know This Formula
Chartists and Trend-followers Need to Trade More Frequently
Projections of Closing Prices Required for Moving Averages to Cross
Probability Investing
Impact Of Volatility On Market Returns
Trading And Probabilities
Trading Math Question with Nearly 75% Wrong Answers

Articles about trading strategy development

Validation Methods For Trading Strategy Development
Do Not Follow The System
What Is Idiosyncratic Alpha?
A Few Practical Principles of Quantitative Trading
Fooled by Randomness and Monte Carlo Simulations
Systems, Lies, and Emotions
Trailing Stops and Curve-Fitting in Trading System Development
Fooled by Machine Learning Applied to Trading Algo Development
Precautionary Principle
Random Investing in High Tech Stocks
Fully Automated Trading Systems: A Dubious Idea
Process, Assumptions, Soundness

Crypto

Crypto Stimulus Package and the Satoshi Treasury
Bitcoin Boom and Bust Cycles. Is it a Ponzi Scheme?
Cryptocurrency Technical Analysis
Bitcoin Main Drivers
Cryptocurrencies and Hyperinflation

Free articles

Interview with Legendary Investor Felix Grandluckmeister (Free)
Misuse And Abuse Of The Notion Of Probability (Free)
Fooled by Randomness, Over-fitting And Selection Bias (Free)
Counter-Intuitive Facts About Backtesting (Free)
Pitfalls of Using Software to Develop Trading Strategies (Free)
Curve-fitting and Optimization (Free)
Facts About Machine Designed Trading Systems (Free)
Fooled By Out of Sample Testing (Free)
Fooled By Monte Carlo Analysis (Free)
There Will Always Be Market Anomalies (Free)
Issues and Risks of Identifying Trading Strategies Suggested by the Data(Free)
Quant Trading Misconceptions (Free)
Trends And Trend-Following (Free)
Trend-Following Won’t Survive (free)
Technical Analysis and Wealth Redistribution (Free)
“Textbook Patterns” are Broken Clocks (Free)
Classical Technical Analysis Indistinguishable From Astrology (Free)
Cryptocurrency Technical Analysis: Is it Effective? (Free)
A Significant Source of Risk for Equity Market Timing (Free)
Academics Avoid Equity Curves (Free)
Jim Simons: Trend-Following is Broken (Free)
Stock Market Bullish Charlatans (Free)
Perils of Forex Position Trading (Free)
Perils of Forex Day Trading (Free)
Perils of Futures Day Trading (Free)
Perils of Futures Position Trading (Free)
Detecting Anomalous Price Action in Daily Timeframe (Free)
Market Newsletters Overstate Performance (Free)
Stock Picking With Chart Analysis is 80s (Free)
Many Crypto Traders Need to Understand Zero-Sum Games (Free)
Multiplicative Process Growth is Not Necessarily Due to Bubble (Free)
Trading Strategy “Over-fitting” Is Not the Main Concern (Free)
Systematic Trading is Hard but Discretionary is Even Harder (Free)
Are Trading Strategies Based on the RSI2 Random? (Free)
An Example of Survivorship Bias in Trend-following (Free)
Structural Misinformation in Financial Markets (Free)
Common Sense Analysis of Strategy and Fund Performance (Free)
Risk Management Schemes By Rising Complexity (Free)

Papers, Presentations, and Interviews

Limitations of Quantitative Claims About Trading Strategy Evaluation (Free)
Forbes Interview (Free)
M4 Conference Presentation (Free)
Interview for Forbes (Free)

Selected articles in Medium [Free]

Medium and other sites
The Paradox Of The Elusive Market Edge
Feature Engineering For Algorithmic And Machine Learning Trading
Long/Short Equity Strategies And Machine Learning
Impact Of Artificial Intelligence And Machine Learning on Trading And Investing
What Is Idiosyncratic Alpha?
Do Not Follow The System
Efficient Market Hypothesis
Machine Learning Replicating Simple Forecasting Methods
Quantopian Shutdown Offers Some Important Lessons
Physical Cash is Tail Risk Hedging

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