Trader Education

A Selection of Free and Premium Articles about Trading

Premium Articles subscription or higher is required for access to premium articles. Access to premium books requires a book subscription.

Summary of contents

Type	Free	Premium
Books	1	2
Articles	122	127

Books

Free book

Profitability and Systematic Trading

Premium Books*

Fooled by Technical Analysis: The perils of charting, backtesting and data-mining
15 Lies About Trading And Investing

*The premium books are sold separately. A book subscription is required for access.

Why classical technical analysis charting is no longer effective

Interview for Forbes (Free)
The Post-Hoc Chartist
The Main Cause of Failure of Classical Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis and Wealth Redistribution (Free)
Is the Bulk of Technical Analysis “Thinking in Words”?
“Dow is Overbought” Is More Bullish Than Bearish
Drawing Lines On Charts Is Not A Strategy
“Textbook Patterns” are Broken Clocks (Free)
Chart Patterns Without Statistics is Naive Technical Analysis (Free)

Rule No. 1 For Success
Chartists Debunked With Math
Technical Analysis Has Misled Traders
RSI is a Short-Term Momentum Indicator
“Market Is Technically Overbought” Narrative
Technical Analysis and Cognitive Bias
Major Failure of Chart Pattern Analysis
Cryptocurrency Technical Analysis
Classical Technical Analysis Indistinguishable From Astrology (Free)
Cryptocurrency Technical Analysis: Is it Effective? (Free)

Trend-following and momentum

All Actions In The Markets Amount To Forecasts
Trend Followers Make Forecasts
The Limiting Case Of Equity Trend-following is Passive Investing
The Golden Cross Trading System Lacks Intelligence
What is so Special About the 200-Day Moving Average?
Trends And Trend-Following (Free)
Trend-Following Won’t Survive (free)
Momentum Has Returned to Stock Market
Illusions of Long-Term Performance Charts
Academic Illusions About Moving Average Performance
Momentum and Trend-following Strategy Variants
A Significant Source of Risk for Equity Market Timing (Free)
Academics Avoid Equity Curves (Free)

Jim Simons is Correct About Trend-Following
Trend-following Woes
Where Do Trend-Following Profits Come From?
A Trend-follower’s Nightmare
Why Trend Following is Hard
Momentum, Randomness And Survivorship Bias
A Simple Explanation Of The Persistence Of The Momentum Anomaly
The Day Momentum Died
Momentum is Price Breakout
A Trend-follower’s Nightmare
Three Reasons Why Momentum is Neglected
Price Series Momentum and Wishful Thinking
Momentum Versus Trend-following (Free)
Jim Simons: Trend-Following is Broken (Free)
Price Series Momentum and Wishful Thinking

Trading, Risk and Money Management

The Secret to Profitable Trading
When Traders Fail
Why Trading is Hard
Position Sizing Based on Risk Ratio
Risk of Ruin For Dummies
The Primary Cause For Trader Failures
Optimal Position Size Methods and Other Misconceptions
Same Investments But Divergent Fortune
To Gamble Or Not To Gamble?
What You Want From The Market Vs. What It Can Give You
Stock Market Bullish Charlatans (Free)
Log, Annualized and Total Return
Perils of Forex Position Trading (Free)
Perils of Forex Day Trading (Free)
Perils of Futures Day Trading (Free)
Perils of Futures Position Trading (Free)
Use Algos to Fight The Algos
Stock Picking With Chart Analysis is 80s (Free)
CAGR Illusions
Financial Media and Trading Gurus Provide an Edge
The Simplest Trading Edge and Peter Principle
Is Your Trading Edge About to Vanish?
What Price Action Cannot Tell You (Free)
Shorting the Stock Market is a Losing Proposition (Free)
Market Risk: Principles and Practice (Free)
Passive Investor High Risk of Large Drawdown

Optimal Trading Using the Kelly Formula
Leverage, Margin and Trading Account Capitalization
The Most Important Performance Measure
Maximizing Kelly
The Fallacy of Rare Events and Fat Tails
The Real Reasons Some Traders Lose
1072 Chances to Short and Profit
Trendline Zoo
S&P 500/VIX Correlation And The Perils Of Visual Charting
What Is A Quant Trader?
A Common Mistake in Calculating Correlations
Detecting Anomalous Price Action in Daily Timeframe (Free)
Volatility Good For Traders Under Certain Conditions
Is Your Trading Edge About to Vanish? (Free)
How Some Academics Misguide Traders And Hedge Funds (Free)
Modern Technical Analyst vs. Chartist
Kelly Leverage
SPY ETF Regular Trading Hours is Noise
Kelly Betting May Lead to Ruin
Trading and the Role of Luck (Free)
Random Trading Versus Trading Randomly
The Imperative of Tail Risk Hedging (Free)The 2% Position Risk Rule: Facts and Fiction (Free)
How Some Signal Providers And Stock Market Newsletters Overstate Performance (Free)
Random Could Become the New Edge (Free)
When Random Traders Profit, It is Hard to Prove Skill (Free)

Market Statistics and Probability

Please, No More Correlations
Market Rebound Rallies
Descriptive Vs. Predictive TA (Free)

Behavior of Some Stocks Near Tops
S&P 500 Is Intelligent Trading Strategy
Descriptive Statistics In Finance (Free)

Perils of backtesting

Fooled by Random Backtesting
Fooled by Randomness, Over-fitting And Selection Bias (Free)
Counter-Intuitive Facts About Backtesting (Free)
Inferences From Backtest Results Are False Until Proven True
Inaccurate Backtest Results Are Common (Free)
Fooled By Out of Sample Testing (Free)
Fooled by Monthly Returns Statistics
Look-Ahead Bias Detection (Free)
Perils of Using Exchange Traded Products in Backtests (Free)

Curve-fitting and Optimization
Five Myths About Data-Mining Bias
Long-Term Backtests Can Be Misleading
Passive Investing Is An Over-Fitted Strategy
Ruined by Hypothesis Testing
Perils Of Statistical Hypothesis Testing
More on the Perils of Statistical Hypothesis Testing
The Next Big Market Trap
When “Best Strategies” Fail (Free)
Performance too Good to Be True (Free)
The Fundamental Problem of Backtesting
A Trillion Ways To Be Fooled
Two Empirical Rules About Backtesting

Portfolio allocation and market timing

Comparison Of Two Portfolio Allocations
Trading Vs. Investing
Investing in European Stocks is Forex Bet
Forex As An Asset Class (Free)
How Risky Is The 60/40 Portfolio?
Long-Only Equity Strategy Benchmark
Portfolio Rebalancing is Market Timing (Free)
When “Best Strategies” Fail (Free)
Quant Trading Misconceptions (Free)

Tactical Investing Conundrum
International vs. U.S. Stocks
Passive Investing Is An Over-Fitted Strategy
No Free Lunch In Portfolio Allocation
Hedge Funds Have Done Well
Wrong Investment Advice is Much Worse than Random Trading Tips (Free)
Timing versus Allocation (Free)
The Transition From Strategic To Tactical Asset Allocation (Free)
Investing in Stock Market is Now Fool’s Errand (Free)

Hedge Funds

Two Facts About Hedge Funds
A Survival Guide For The Coming Hedge Fund War
Interview with Legendary Investor Felix Grandluckmeister (Free)

Hedge Fund Edge Dynamics (Free)
Is Your Hedge Fund Using Your Money To Test Trading Strategies?
Quant Funds Must Have Realistic Targets (Free)

Indicators, strategies and price action anomalies

Momersion (Free)
PSI5 Strategy (Free)
Fluxionization Strategy (Free)
Long/Short Equity Strategy (Free)
Mean-Reversion Strategy (Free)
Mean-Reversion Strategy For S&P 100 (Free)
Strategies for hedge funds (Free)
Has the Internal Bar Strength Indicator Lost its Strength? (Free)
VIX Day of Week Returns (Free)
Trend-Following with Mean-reversion Companion
An Interesting Price Action Anomaly
Fully Automated Trading Systems: A Dubious Idea (Free)
Two Billion Dollar Trend-Following Strategy
An Interesting Price Action Anomaly

Harris’ RSI
Gambler’s Fallacy
SNR
Amibroker Code For 3 Indicators
Bond anomaly
Seasonality anomaly
Simple Investment Strategy
Leveraging the Performance of a Weekly Strategy (Free)
Turnaround Tuesday (Free)
“Death Cross” Means “Loser”
The Perils Of Volatility Strategies
Trading Four Mean Reversion Strategies
RSI Indicator Levels Are Irrelevant For Longer Than A Couple Of Days (Free)
RSI2 Versus WR2 (Free)
Performance Of Two Price Action Anomalies
Using Leveraged ETFs to Improve Buy and Hold Return (Free)

Trading Math

Win Rate, Profit Factor and Payoff Ratio
The Trading System Inversion Paradox
The Many Faces of Trading Expectation
Arithmetic Versus Geometric Mean Conundrum
What is a trading “edge”? (Free)
What is a trading “edge”? – Part II(Free)
Every Trader Should Know This Formula
Chartists and Trend-followers Need to Trade More Frequently (Free)
Projections of Closing Prices Required for Moving Averages to Cross (Free)
Probability Investing (Free)
Misuse And Abuse Of The Notion Of Probability (Free)
Impact Of Volatility On Market Returns
Trading And Probabilities

Articles about trading strategy development

Validation Methods For Trading Strategy Development
Fooled By Monte Carlo Analysis (Free)
Do Not Follow The System
What Is Idiosyncratic Alpha?
Facts About Machine Designed Trading Systems (Free)
A Few Practical Principles of Quantitative Trading (Free)
Fooled by Randomness and Monte Carlo Simulations
Systems, Lies, and Emotions (Free)
Trailing Stops and Curve-Fitting in Trading System Development (Free)
Fooled by Machine Learning Applied to Trading Algo Development (Free)
Curve-fitting and Optimization (Free)
Precautionary Principle

Papers, Presentations and Interviews

Limitations of Quantitative Claims About Trading Strategy Evaluation (Free)
Forbes Interview (Free)
M4 Conference Presentation (Free)

Selected articles from Seeking Alpha and Medium [Free]

Seeking Alpha

The Ambiguous VIX: A Fear Gauge Or A Contrarian Indicator
The Managed Futures Dilemma
PIMCO’s Old And New Bets: Should You Replace Treasuries With Munis?
No Signs Of A Bond Bear Market For Now
Fundamental Factors That Can Drive U.S. Bond Yields Lower
The Perils Of Using Moving Averages In Asset Allocation Models
The Efficient Market Hypothesis May Be Gaining Ground
Evidence-Based Analysis Of Commodity Trading Advisor Performance
An Explanation Of The Persistence Of The Momentum Anomaly
Dividends And Stock Market Returns
Outperforming Buy And Hold Does Not Prove Skill
Naive Portfolio Allocation Schemes
Market Timing And Gambling
2 Portfolio Allocations For Conservative Investors
An Example Of How Data-Mining Bias Plagues Fund Management
Diminishing Stock Returns And The Unavoidable Bear Market
Investing In European Stocks Is A Forex Bet
The 60/40 Portfolio Is A Risky Investment
Portfolio Allocation Is No Free Lunch

Medium and other sites

Markets Are Algo-Event Driven
How Some Academics Misguide Traders And Hedge Funds
Validation Methods For Trading Strategy Development
The Paradox Of The Elusive Market Edge
Fooled By Monte Carlo Simulation
Feature Engineering For Algorithmic And Machine Learning Trading
Curve-fitting and Optimization In Trading Strategy Development
Fooled by Randomness, Over-fitting And Selection Bias
Long/Short Equity Strategies And Machine Learning
Is Your Hedge Fund Testing Trading Strategies With Your Money At Stake?
The Patient Chart Pattern Trader
Impact Of Artificial Intelligence And Machine Learning on Trading And Investing
Trend-Following Won’t Survive
What Is Idiosyncratic Alpha?
Probability: An Abused Notion In Trading And Investing
Fooled by Machine Learning Applied to Trading Algo Development
Do Not Follow The System
A Trillion Ways To Be Fooled
Cryptocurrency Technical Analysis: Is it Effective?
Are Quant Funds The New Chart Traders?
Efficient Market Hypothesis
Machine Learning Replicating Simple Forecasting Methods

Price Action Lab Blog

Premium Market Analysis

Trader Education