Quantitative trading, Risk Management, Trader education

Probability Investing

Posted by Michael Harris on September 15, 2015

Trading and investing based on probabilities are fraught with many difficulties. Most of the difficulties arise from the very nature of probability. Article updated on July 29, 2020 . . .

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Michael Harris

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Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated performance results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Hypothetical trading results are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.

Probability Investing

Michael Harris

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Probability Investing

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The Three Types Of Backtests According to Clifford Asness

Managed Futures Replication Under Stress Due to Tail Risk

Risk Vs. Uncertainty and the Illusion of Control

Subscribe by email

Categories

Subscribe and receive a free book

CFTC RULE 4.41

Copyright Notice