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  • This is No Time For Statistics But For Tail Risk Hedging March 8, 2022

    The S&P 500 is down 12.4% from all-time highs while the NASDAQ-100 has fallen near bear market territory. This is no time for statistics but for tail risk hedging. Some technical analysts are pointing to statistics that include data from the ...

  • CRB Index Up Eleven Weeks In a Row March 7, 2022

    This has only occurred once during 2011 with the CRB index up eleven weeks in a row but the gain was only 11.9%. The gain after current 11-week win streak is 33.2%. Below is the chart with 11-week “win streak” indicator ...

  • Global Economy On The Brink of Stagflation March 4, 2022

    Failure of central banks to deal with rising commodity prices due to a supply shock caused by the pandemic and now due to a war in the heart of Europe has brought the global economy on the brink of stagflation. This ...

  • Largest Gain in NASDAQ-100 From Open to Close in 14 Years February 25, 2022

    NASDAQ-100 registered on Thursday, February 24, 2022, the largest gain from open to close in the last 14 years. The index opened 3.3% below the previous close but ended the day with a gain of 3.4%. The High-Low range for the ...

  • There Is No Indicator To Forecast The Magnitude of a Correction February 21, 2022

    Technical and fundamental analysts are wasting their time in the search of an indicator that will forecast the magnitude of a correction. It’s already hard enough to forecast the market direction, or what quants may call the sign of the return ...

  • S&P 500 Weekly and Monthly Losses Larger Than 10% February 16, 2022

    Some market participants argue tail risk hedging of portfolios tracking the S&P 500 is not necessary because large losses on weekly or monthly timeframes are rare. They are both right and wrong: large losses are indeed rare but when they ...

  • Latest Campaign of Permabears Involves Consumer Price Index Charts February 15, 2022

    Permabears have used in the past various arguments and charts in an effort to convince investors equity markets and economies will crash. The latest campaign involves long-term consumer price index charts. Before quantitative easing, most permabears used technical analysis and chart ...

  • Growth Vs. Value Could Be an Outdated Classification February 10, 2022

    Growth and value relative strength has changed in different regimes based on the momentum of the companies included in these classifications/factors. Therefore, what occurred in the past may not necessarily occur in the future. Possibly, these notions are outdated. The relative ...

  • Smart Money Profits From Bear Markets February 5, 2022

    Who benefits and who loses during bear markets? It’s not who most people think. Smart money has always benefitted from bear markets. Passing investors and especially those close to retirement are always scared of the possibility of a bear market. This ...

  • Common Sense Analysis of Strategy and Fund Performance January 22, 2022

    Money is important but also time. There is also the aphorism “time is money”. When looking at strategy and fund performance, common sense does a good job. Common sense is often lost in advanced statistical analysis. Using common sense offers a ...