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  • Overnight Effect Regime Change December 21, 2023

    Do you remember the overnight effect? Most of us have forgotten all about it. There was a regime change in 2022. Most traders are looking for new anomalies. The overnight effect in SPY ETF was strong in the 1990s. After a ...

  • Hybrid Asset Allocation Signals December 20, 2023

    We are pleased to announce the hybrid asset allocation signal service. Hybrid asset allocation (HAA) employs two strategies: asset cross-sectional momentum and strategic allocation. Both strategies use ETFs to generate signals. The asset cross-sectional momentum strategy (CSMOM) and the strategic allocation strategy ...

  • Permabears with Hundreds of Thousands of Followers December 16, 2023

    There is this puzzling phenomenon on financial social media: some permabear accounts have hundreds of thousands of followers. Below are a few thoughts that might provide some clues. Since I joined Twitter (now X) in 2010, I have been a witness ...

  • Changes To Market Signals For Next Year December 15, 2023

    Below are the changes to the mix of Market Signals strategies for next year. The process of selecting strategies for the Market Signals ensemble focuses on two objectives: Generate reasonable risk-adjusted returns Provide a hedge during periods of elevated uncertainty Below is the performance ...

  • The US Dollar is More Than a Reserve Currency December 14, 2023

    The US dollar is more than a reserve currency. It is also a tool that helps politicians and central banks boost asset prices and avoid making unpopular decisions. The debasement of the US dollar may accelerate as central bankers and politicians ...

  • Year-End Seasonality: Stocks, Bonds, Gold, and the US Dollar December 12, 2023

    We look at year-end seasonality in stocks, bonds, gold, and the US dollar, and specifically the performance of these markets in the last trading week after Christmas. We buy at the close of the last trading day before the Christmas holiday ...

  • The Asymmetry of Up Versus Down Days in the Stock Market December 7, 2023

    Different market regimes may give rise to asymmetries that can persist for many years or even decades. This is the story of the up-versus-down asymmetry in the stock market. A financial media post yesterday included a chart that showed the asymmetry ...

  • The Data Refutes Gold Selloff Sensationalism December 5, 2023

    Financial media loves sensationalism when there is a selloff in the markets, but the data often refutes it. Yesterday, there was a selloff in the precious metals markets following a strong rally. Gold (GLD) fell 2.2%, and silver (SLV) lost 3.7%. ...

  • Lack of Discipline and Objectives Might Cause Ruin November 28, 2023

    Many traders and investors lack discipline and clear objectives. Spasmodic actions lead to losses and might eventually cause uncle point, or even ruin. Passive investors Let us start with passive investors because of the dominance of this style. Looking at daily price ...

  • Stock Market Diversification Underperforms Passive Indexing November 17, 2023

    Many investors are searching for the next Nvidia, Apple, or Tesla. Naïve diversification may not capture the future big winners. These investors may be better off with passive index investing. Identifying the next big stock market winners is not trivial at ...