The US dollar’s value versus other currencies is an extremely complex equation that involves political, geopolitical, and other known and unknown variables. Do not even try to forecast currency moves, especially where the US dollar will be in the future.
Below is the US Dollar index chart going back to January 4, 1971.
In the early eighties, when I was an undergraduate student but already interested in the markets, many tried to forecast the future course of the US dollar and failed. It took the Plaza Accord to depreciate the US dollar on September 22, 1985. They couldn’t do it without an accord.
Most forecasts of currency exchange rates are random to some degree because no one knows in advance the political decisions and geopolitical events that determine currency values. Do not even try; it’s an exercise in futility.
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Disclaimer: No part of the analysis in this blog constitutes a trade recommendation. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Read the full disclaimer here.
