The weekly market reports include a stock market forecast and a capital market analysis. To access the full report, you must subscribe to Premium Articles, Weekly Premium Articles, or an All-in-One subscription.
Included in this report:
- Momentum comeback.
- Are restaurants in trouble?
- Performance of factor rotation.
- A random rally or something else?
Weekly Summary (May 28–May 31, 2024)
- Stocks finished the week with small losses after a late-Friday surge.
- Despite a positive PCE report, bonds were lower for the week.
- Commodities fell during the week, with precious metals and grains dropping.
- The US dollar index ended the holiday-shortened week unchanged.
A late-Friday rally trimmed losses in large-cap stocks (SPY) from 1.3% in the first three trading days of the holiday-shortened week to 0.4%. Tech stocks (QQQ) closed down 1.6% after falling as much as 3.3%. Small caps (IWM) gained 0.2% after a nearly 2% drop.
The high-beta large caps (SPHB) fell 1.6%, but the low-volatility large caps (SPLV) gained 0.4%, with lower-risk equities rebounding from recent losses.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) ended the week down 0.8%. Year-to-date, large losses in Boeing (BA) and Intel (INTC) of 31.9% and 38.2%, respectively, have impacted the index performance and have limited gains to 3.5%, versus 11.3% for the S&P 500 (SPY).
For the week, the magnificent 7 fell 0.9%. Year-to-date, the equal-weight magnificent 7 portfolio is up 25.1%.
The DBC ETF fell 1.1%, primarily due to losses in grains and precious metals. Gold (GLD) fell 0.3% for the week. The US dollar index (UUP) ended the week unchanged. Note that gold (GLD) has outperformed the SPY ETF since 2022 by a wide margin, with a return of 25.9% versus 14.9%, respectively.
The TLT ETF ended the week down 1% despite a presumably favorable PCE report and is down 7.3% year-to-date but down 42.2% from all-time highs. Since January 3, 2022, the TLT ETF has been down 34.5%, while large-caps (SPY) have gained 14.9%.
Year-to-date relative sector ETF performance.
The technology sector (XLK) fell the most, at -2.3%. The energy sector (XLE) was up the most for the week, at 2%. Utilities are up the most for the year, at 15.8%.
Momentum comeback
|
This post is for paid subscribers
Already a subscriber? Sign in |
Premium Content
By subscribing, you have immediate access to hundreds of articles. Premium Articles subscribers have immediate access to more than two hundred articles, and All in One subscribers have access to all premium articles, books, premium insights, and market signal content.
Specific disclaimer: This report includes charts that may reference price levels. If market conditions change the price levels or any analysis based on them, we may not update the charts. All charts in this report are for informational purposes only. See the disclaimer for more information.
Disclaimer: No part of the analysis in this blog constitutes a trade recommendation. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Read the full disclaimer here.
Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data
If you found this article interesting, you may follow this blog via RSS, email, or Twitter.
