Monthly Archives: December 2012

What Return?

Posted on December 29, 2012 by Michael Harris

This is the time of the year when performance statistics are published in the blogoshpere. One of the parameters reported is the arithmetic 1-year return for stocks, commodities, currencies, funds, etc. But what return? The details of the calculations are usually left out. Here is … Continue reading →

Posted in Market Statistics | Tagged , , , , | Comments Off

S&P/ASX 200 Index and Straits Times Index in Overbought Territory

Posted on December 29, 2012 by Michael Harris

The Australian S&P/ASX 200 index and the Singapore Straits Times index have both entered overbought territory. Although as of the close of Friday both indices were up substantially on a YTD basis, 2-year returns are still negative. The probability of a correction … Continue reading →

Posted in Technical Analysis | Tagged , | Comments Off

Price Action Lab Alert for Friday, December 28, 2012

Posted on December 28, 2012 by Price Action Lab

A scan of historical data of 12 popular ETFs produced one long signal for entry at the open of Friday, December 28, 2012, with profit target/stop-loss of 2%.  The pattern that generated the signal performed well when backtested on the portfolio of the 12 … Continue reading →

Posted in Price Action Lab Alerts | Tagged | Comments Off

Price Action Lab Alert for Thursday, December 27, 2012

Posted on December 27, 2012 by Price Action Lab

Although trading during this time of the year is usually slow, some opportunities emerge once in a while.  A Price Action Lab scan of S&P 100 stocks for high probability setups for entry at the open and 2% profit target and stop-loss generated … Continue reading →

Posted in Price Action Lab Alerts | Tagged | Comments Off

Fundbusters

Posted on December 27, 2012 by Michael Harris

The fundbusters team includes your familiar quant blogger, your local college professor and everyone else who can identify an edge and publish the results in a journal or in the blogosphere. As fundbusters keep on getting satisfaction from publishing edges rather than from using … Continue reading →

Posted in Warnings | Tagged | Comments Off

Predictions for 2013

Posted on December 26, 2012 by Michael Harris

I took the crystal ball out of the closet and here are my predictions for 2013.

Posted in Technical Analysis | Tagged | Comments Off

Recommended Posts About Price Action Lab Software

Posted on December 24, 2012 by Price Action Lab

The following posts about the features and operation of Price Action Lab are recommended to those who are interested in the software.

Posted in Price Action Lab Patterns | Tagged | Comments Off

More on the Correlation Between Stocks and Gold

Posted on December 24, 2012 by Michael Harris

After 2009, each time the correlation between stocks and gold turned negative, stocks rallied to new short-term highs. However, the number of observations is not significant and this pattern may change if key players change their strategy. The fact that there was … Continue reading →

Posted in ETF Analysis, Market Statistics, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , | Comments Off

ETF Correlations as of the Close of Friday, December 21, 2012

Posted on December 22, 2012 by Michael Harris

Rolling 60-day correlations of SPY with TLT, FXE, GLD, SLV, USO and DBC, and trends developing since the last report on November 30, 2012. The correlation between stocks and gold has decreased but this is nothing to get excited about.

Posted in ETF Analysis | Tagged | Comments Off

The Main Cause of Failure of Some Popular Technical Trading Methods

Posted on December 21, 2012 by Michael Harris

Indicator based trend following and classical chart patterns are two trading methods that were developed in mid 20th century using data from the equity markets mainly and worked well during an extended period of time in those markets due to the presence of autocorrelation. After 1998 things … Continue reading →

Posted in Market Statistics | Tagged , , , , , | Comments Off