Tag Archives: black swan
By some measures, this is the most dangerous stock market of all time. Traditional technical and fundamental analysis are seriously limited in this new environment. A systematic approach could offer some protection when normalization begins.
Social media facilitates widespread dissemination of information and assists in the market discounting all publicly available information. The result is that the upward drift due to dividends dominates in the longer-term and bear markets can only occur due to a … Continue reading
Distributions of returns of currency pairs have fat tails and the probability of extreme events is much higher than that predicted by normality. The 8% fall in GBPUSD last Friday was not an outlier or a black swan event. Usually … Continue reading