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  • Market Facts We Cannot Ignore [Premium Articles] February 12, 2021

    A few market facts we cannot ignore. What drives markets and what breaks them? Are there any ominous signs at the moment? Are we close to a market top? Access to article requires Premium Articles subscription.

  • Commodity ETFs [Premium Articles] January 15, 2021

    Commodity ETFs offer exposure to commodity markets but the way this exposure is achieved has impact on performance. This article includes a brief introduction to different types of commodity ETFs and specific examples that illustrate some of the issues along ...

  • Russell 2000 Has Doubled From Its March Lows. Is this a Signal of Market Top? [Premium Articles] December 30, 2020

    Since the stock market low in March of this year, the Russell 2000 index has gained nearly 100%. How extreme is this move and is it a signal of a stock market top forming? Access to full article requires Premium ...

  • Dollar Index December Seasonality [Premium Articles] December 9, 2020

    The US Dollar Index December seasonality is well-known. There is also a seasonal effect that is maybe less known. Some comments about seasonality statistics are included. Access to article requires Premium Articles subscription.

  • Two Gold Seasonality Strategies December 7, 2020

    Two interesting gold seasonality strategies are analyzed in this article, one in daily timeframe and the other in monthly timeframe.  Accessing the article requires a premium subscription. 

  • How to Properly Calculate the Sharpe Ratio November 16, 2020

    The Sharpe ratio is an important metric for evaluating performance in finance world. However, calculations of this ratio in backtesting and portfolio tracking software are usually not accurate. In this article, we present the main reason for the discrepancies and ...

  • Russell 2000/NASDAQ-100 Largest Ever Divergence and What It Could Mean [Premium Articles] November 10, 2020

    On Monday, November 9, 2020, there was the largest ever divergence between Russell 2000 and NASDAQ-100. Small caps rallied 3.7% while tech stocks fell -2.2%. In this article we discuss what this large divergence could mean for the market. Access ...

  • Equal-Weight Vs. Cap-Weighted S&P 500 Chart Recency Bias [Premium Articles] November 5, 2020

    Year-to-date, the equal-weight S&P 500 total return index is down 1.13% while the capitalization-weight total return index is gaining 8.22%. The wide divergence between the two indexes yesterday has prompted a new round of chart analysis plagued by recency bias. ...

  • Probability Puzzle Analysis and Relation to Trading Risk October 13, 2020

    The poll results of the probability puzzle in Twitter on October 11, 2020, showed that risk of ruin is often underestimated. In this article, we discuss how this puzzle is related to trading and risk. Access to the article requires ...

  • Fooled By Upward Market Bias September 29, 2020

    Technical and fundamental analysts, and even some quasi-quant types who are forecasting the continuation of the stock market uptrend due to the formation of patterns, are often fooled by the market upward bias. Access to the article requires a premium ...