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  • Trailing Stops and Curve-Fitting in Trading System Development June 17, 2012

    Trailing stop can be very useful during real trading but its use during trading system development and especially by programs that automatically design trading systems is highly questionable because of the potential of curve-fitting a price series.

  • Machine Generated GBPUSD Patterns and Trading Systems June 6, 2012

    In this example of machine generation of trading systems, the steps are presented for discovering price patterns to develop a position trading system for GBPUSD spot currency. The patterns are discovered using the Price Action Lab search function in an in-sample of daily historical data. The in-sample results ...

  • Machine Generated DIA Patterns and Trading Systems May 27, 2012

    The steps are presented here for discovering price patterns in DIA (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average) historical daily data using the Price Action Lab search function, testing the results in an out-of-sample and then creating a trading system. It is shown that Price Action Lab can identify ...

  • Consistent Losers in the Markets Are as Rare as Consistent Winners – The Paradox May 21, 2012

    I will name this the “Trading System Inversion Paradox”. The paradox says that being a consistent loser in the markets is as hard as being a consistent winner. The proof of this apparent paradox is very easy and requires high school level math. ...

  • The Last Chartist May 6, 2012

    Surrounded by robots, he knew the end was near. He was one chartist against 1,000 HFT robots, one man trying to predict the future against 1,000 robots that create the future. He pulled out his last chart and he looked ...

  • Accounting Identities and the Fallacy of Equilibrium States May 4, 2012

    I avoid economic analysis because the subject is too complicated and far away from a true science although when I was in graduate school I found it fascinating. More fascinating to me was the fact that most economists tried to ...

  • Never start a fight with the FED because you will lose April 20, 2012

    The lesson is never start a fight with the FED. When it comes to bonds, the FED is the boss, not some bond fund managers who are just the humble servants of the FED although they often commit the original financial sin of trying to overthrow the ...

  • Updated: Eight Investment Lessons I don’t Need March 31, 2012

    Another list of “lessons” I don’t need. Update: May 16, 2022 (Fixed a few typos and made minor corrections.) The list of lessons was reported by Pragmatic Capitalism and it was attributed to Bruce Berkowitz of Fairholme. I haven’t checked the source ...

  • Technical Trading: The Winners and Losers March 24, 2012

    Technical trading is not as easy to define nowadays as it was in the 1980s when it become popular. It is no longer limited to technical analysis and indicators but encompasses a wide variety of methods. Most of the methods are well-known, ...

  • Margin, Leverage and Trading Account Capitalization [Premium Articles] February 13, 2012

    This is a short introduction to the use of margin and leverage. After defining the relevant terms and clarifying common misconceptions I present a simple formula for calculating the amount of capital that is required for minimizing the probability of ruin when trading highly volatile markets ...