The Price Action Lab Report – Friday, August 22, 2014 [Premium]

Daily Market Recap and Premium report delivered before the market open. The premium report includes analysis of ETFs and S&P 500 stocks with focus on short-term high probability setups. Click here for an example of a daily premium report.

Note: I will be on vacation from August 25 through September 5.  The next Market Recap and premium report will be posted on September 8. Have a great weekend and also a great Labor Day holiday!

Market Recap - August 21, 2014

The S&P 500 rose 0.29%, NASDAQ gained 0.12% after some early profit taking, the Dow added 0.36% and the Russell 2000 was up 0.22%.

Bond prices broke a 3-day losing streak with the 10-Year Note yield falling to 2.41%. Crude oil prices resumed their downtrend with spot light crude dropping 2.61%. Precious metals weakness continued with gold losing 1.18% and oversold silver falling 0.18%. The U.S. dollar fell slightly versus the Euro to close in New York at $1.3282 but stayed below the psychological level of $1.3300.

Comment: Market participants are looking for hints from the FED today but it appears that there will be no surprises as the economic recovery primarily rests on equity market performance. Although the FED has warned about signs of bubbles forming in some sectors, they may wait before hitting the breaks. The biggest risks come from geopolitical conflicts and especially from the Ukraine front but it appears that Nash equilibrium has been reached between the two major players and unless more sanctions are announced or there is a military intervention, the conflict will be contained locally with no major direct impact on financial markets.

Short-term Technical and Quantitative Analysis

Below is a table with 10 high probability setups in 10 major ETFs, 5 long and 5 short. There are 4 open positions, two long and two short: 

This is premium content. Please login or subscribe to continue reading...

Posted in Premium Content | Tagged | Comments Off

The 1990s, the 2000s and the 2010s

The charts below show how market dynamics have changed from the 1990s, to the 2000s and into the 2010s, with V-shaped recoveries becoming dominant and taking the place of consolidation periods.

Continue reading

Posted in Market Statistics | Tagged , , , | Comments Off

The Price Action Lab Report – Thursday, August 21, 2014 [Premium]

Daily Market Recap and Premium report delivered before the market open. The premium report includes analysis of ETFs and S&P 500 stocks with focus on short-term high probability setups. Click here for an example of a daily premium report.

This is premium content. Please login or subscribe to continue reading...

Posted in Premium Content | Tagged | Comments Off

Inference to the Best Explanation

In the markets, deductive inferences do not usually provide any answers because the appropriate premises to use are unknown. Inductive inferences are plagued by data-mining bias and noise. Inferences to the best explanation are usually weak but may offer higher chances of an understanding of price action when everything else fails.

Continue reading

Posted in Market Statistics | Tagged | Comments Off

The Price Action Lab Report – Wednesday, August 20, 2014 [Premium]

Daily Market Recap and Premium report delivered before the market open. The premium report includes analysis of ETFs and S&P 500 stocks with focus on short-term high probability setups. Click here for an example of a daily premium report.

This is premium content. Please login or subscribe to continue reading...

Posted in Premium Content | Tagged | Comments Off

ETF YTD Performance: Winners and Losers

Real estate, biotech and bonds continue to deliver high returns YTD while small caps are recovering. The performance table points to possibility of bubbles forming soon.

Continue reading

Posted in ETF Analysis | Tagged | Comments Off

The Price Action Lab Report – Tuesday, August 19, 2014 [Premium]

Daily Market Recap and Premium report delivered before the market open. The premium report includes analysis of ETFs and S&P 500 stocks with focus on short-term high probability setups. Click here for an example of a daily premium report.

This is premium content. Please login or subscribe to continue reading...

Posted in Premium Content | Tagged | Comments Off