Descriptive Vs. Predictive Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis (TA) becomes even more popular during times of market turmoil. I find value in both descriptive and predictive TA but both are of little help in forecasting the next market move. For that you may be better off tossing a coin.

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Procedure For Generating Weekly P-Dow Indicator Results

The P-Dow indicator has successfully predicted the sign of stock market returns in the past 5 weeks. A blog reader asked me about the procedure I use to generate the indicator values. This is briefly presented below with some comments.

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Capitulation Signal

The Fed gave a signal yesterday to the US stock market to capitulate. Weak hands and especially those that are overleveraged must now take losses and let value investors take over. Below is a chart with potential capitulation levels for the S&P 500 index.

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Is It a Game Or One Step Before The Final Meltdown?

Yesterday was not as bad as it appeared. There was again a flight from high beta to low volatility. This game was played several times since the bottom of 2009. I remain an optimist about the medium-term course of the market until the selloff spills over to low volatility large caps, as I explain below.

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Market Analysis For Week of Monday, February 8, 2016 [Premium Articles]

This premium report includes a market commentary, stocks and ETFs to watch and technical/quantitative analysis of stock indexes, ETFs and Dow-30 stocks.

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A Simple Explanation Of The Persistence Of The Momentum Anomaly

There is massive literature than documents the persistence of the time-series momentum anomaly in most major asset classes. I abduct in this article a simple explanation of this anomaly and I present some evidence that corroborates it.

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Strategies With High Win Rate And Lower Payoff Ratio

Maintaining a constant profit factor while lowering the payoff ratio requires a strategy with higher win rate. In general, high win rate strategies are more difficult to develop but when combined with lower payoff ratio usually perform better during times of uncertainty. In this article I present an example of a strategy and its performance results for 2015.

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