Quant Analysis of the Double Inside Day Breakout in S&P 500

After forming a double inside day, prices yesterday closed above the high of the first day of this pattern. This new pattern has a small positive bias when tested on all S&P 500 stocks but occurrences are not very frequent.

Continue reading

Posted in Price Action Lab Patterns, Quantitative trading | Tagged , , | Comments Off

The Price Action Lab Report – Wednesday, July 23, 2014 [Premium]

Premium report delivered daily before the market open that includes price action analysis of proxy ETFs and S&P 500 stocks with focus on short-term high probability setups. Click here for an example of a daily premium report.

Market Recap - July 21, 2014

Stock indexes opened higher but moved sideways for the rest of the day. The S&P 500 gained 0.50% after a breakout of a double inside day to close just 2 points below its all-time high. NASDAQ rose 0.70% to its highest close since September 6, 2000 and Russell 2000 added 0.83%. Earnings reporting is underway but any major negative surprises are not expected.

Bonds yields were flat with the 10-Year Note yield pinned at 2.47%. TLT gained 0.21% in defiance of its anti-correlation with stocks. Crude oil lost Tuesday's gains with the leveraged UCO losing -0.90%. Commodities were under pressure with DBA losing -0.27%. Precious metals prices declined due to the dollar strength with GLD dropping -0.47%. Copper prices recovered slightly, with JJC gaining 0.18%.

Highlights 

      • SPY gained 0.44% after a double inside day breakout
      • QQQ rose 0.64% to multi-year highs
      • IWM was up 0.84% but small caps still show weakness 
      • TLT gained 0.21% despite rising stock prices
      • UCO lost-0.39% as crude oil prices recovered
      • UNG dropped -2.25% hitting a double top target
      • GLD lost -0.47% as the USD rallied
      • FXE fell -0.40% in oversold territory as the US dollar gained 

Selected overbought ETFs: -
Selected oversold ETFs: CORN, UNG, FXE

Short-term Technical Analysis

This is premium content. Please login or subscribe to continue reading...

Posted in Premium Content | Tagged | Comments Off

Quantitative Analysis of the Double Inside Day in SPY

Quantitative analysis of the double inside day in SPY formed as of the close of Monday, July 21, 2014, shows that this particular pattern has a very small bias that is indistinguishable from 0, and thus it is probably another random formation.

Continue reading

Posted in Price Action Lab Patterns, Quantitative trading | Tagged , , | Comments Off

The Price Action Lab Report – Tuesday, July 22, 2014 [Premium]

Premium report delivered daily before the market open that includes price action analysis of proxy ETFs and S&P 500 stocks with focus on short-term high probability setups. Click here for an example of a daily premium report.

This is premium content. Please login or subscribe to continue reading...

Posted in Premium Content | Tagged | Comments Off

The Market Has Not Seen a Strong Up Day for Longer Than It Has Not Seen a Strong Down Day

It is a fact that the S&P 500 hasn’t had a -2% drop in the last 68 days but it also hasn’t had a 2% rise for 193 days. The market has given bears plenty of room to escape.

Continue reading

Posted in Market Statistics | Tagged , | Comments Off

The Price Action Lab Report – Monday, July 21, 2014 [Premium]

Premium report delivered daily before the market open that includes price action analysis of proxy ETFs and S&P 500 stocks with focus on short-term high probability setups. Click here for an example of a daily premium report.

This is premium content. Please login or subscribe to continue reading...

Posted in Premium Content | Tagged | Comments Off

S&P 500 Breaks Another Record

The S&P 500 is 388 days in a 25-100 golden cross, the longest period since the 1960s that the 25-DMA has stayed above the 100-DMA.  Maybe this is a precursor for the duration of the 50-200 golden cross that is already in place for 619 days.

Continue reading

Posted in Market Statistics | Tagged | Comments Off