P-Dow Indicator For Wednesday, July 29, 2015 [Premium Articles]

P-Dow indicator results for Wednesday, July 29, 2015.

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State of the Markets – July 28, 2015 [Premium Articles]

Useful statistics, interesting charts and analysis as markets approach crucial levels. The analysis includes emerging markets, high beta vs. low volatility stocks, bonds and more.

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SP500 Attractor

The S&P 500 index is trapped inside a 119-day consolidation channel between 2135 and 2040. There is an attractor near the February lows that offers strong support for a technical correction but a move below that would possibly require a fundamental trigger.

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Market Analysis For Week of Monday, July 27, 2015 [Premium Articles]

This premium report includes technical and quantitative analysis for:

  • Indexes: S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 2000
  • ETFs:      Thirty liquid issues
  • Stocks:    All Dow-30 components

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An Ominous Random Pattern

I show in the blog that the candlestick pattern known as bearish engulfing is no more than a random formation even when it occurs near 52-week highs. Although this and a host of other related patterns are useless for making trading/investing decisions, the financial news industry continues to frame them as important.

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A Predictable Decline in Crude Oil

Last week USO plunged 5.65%, which was the largest weekly loss in this ETF since March of this year. This was one of those rare times that a move was predictable.

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Mean Compound Annual Return MCAR

The buy and hold return depends on the holding period. However, it is absurd to consider that all buying took place at the beginning of a given period. In uptrending markets, buy and hold returns based on the start date of a series often overestimate returns from passive investments. Here, I introduce the Mean Compound Annual Return (MCAR) to offer a more realistic account of the buy and hold return.

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